The Weather Forecast

Okay. Three times today I heard people talking about the weather, and all three times they had completely different – and completely wrong – explanations of this particular phrase actually means:

Percentage probability of precipitation.

Alright, enough. It’s a really simple concept. If the weather report comes on and the bingo caller says that there is a 60% chance of rain, it means that the last 100 times the weather was like this it rained the next day 60 times. It’s a historical reference, nothing more. The numbers, of course, are higher – it would be more like the last 2000 times it was like this, it rained the next day 1200 times – but the percentage would be the same.

Which, if you were wondering, does indeed mean if the weather droids say there is a 100% chance of rain tomorrow and it doesn’t rain … well, technically they weren’t wrong. It just means that it never happened before. It’s a pretty low bar as far as accuracy goes, but there you are.

And now you know. Feel free to correct morons around you who can’t figure this out.

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